economic development Archives - Schaefer Marketing Solutions: We Help Businesses {grow} https://businessesgrow.com/category/economic-development/ Rise Above the Noise. Wed, 22 Oct 2025 12:00:51 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0 https://businessesgrow.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/favicon.ico.webp economic development Archives - Schaefer Marketing Solutions: We Help Businesses {grow} https://businessesgrow.com/category/economic-development/ 32 32 112917138 The Era of AI Solopreneurship Starts Now https://businessesgrow.com/2025/10/22/ai-solopreneurship/ Wed, 22 Oct 2025 12:00:51 +0000 https://businessesgrow.com/?p=91267 AI Solopreneurship is rising as more people discover how they can overcome capital and resource constraints by using AI creatively. Expert Ethan Pierse shows us how it's done.

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AI Solopreneurship

I’ve known Ethan Pierse for many years and finally had a chance to meet him in person a few weeks ago. We spent a half day together and over dinner I turned to him and said, “This is the most interesting conversation I’ve had all year”

Both of us lamented that we should have recorded the coversation … so I did by inviting him on the Marketing Companion podcast. You’re in for a treat!

Ethan is a serial entrepreneur who has become an AI innovation authority. As founder of Borderless Ventures he advises AI startups throughout Europe and Asia.

In this show, we discuss

  • The rise of the AI solopreneur
  • The ROI of AI and the investment bubble
  • Practical AI applications
  • The unseen evolution of Web3

… and more

To tune in, simply click on this link:

Click here to enjoy The Marketing Companion Episode 326

And here is a text review of the show’s highlights:

The Rise of the AI Solopreneur

At the heart of Ethan’s current work is his passion for “democratizing opportunity” with AI. Through Borderless Ventures, he invests primarily in generative and agentic AI solutions — tools that power not only creators and solo business owners but also small, nimble teams with global reach.

Ethan Pierse
Pierse

Ethan is also writing a book, The AI Solopreneur Economy, capturing this moment where entrepreneurship is open to more people than ever.

He argues that AI isn’t just for developers or technical founders. Instead, non-technical but entrepreneurial folks can now build tech products without deep coding skills. AI is breaking down traditional barriers and letting more people “create their own future.”

The scale is already astonishing: micro teams — or even individuals — are building seven- to nine-figure businesses, something unimaginable even a decade ago. With AI, a solopreneur can achieve what once took dozens of staff and millions in capital.

No Longer a Game for the Valley Alone

Ethan dismisses the outdated idea that innovation must happen only in places like San Francisco, London, or Tel Aviv. The global pandemic, he notes, accelerated the move to remote work, further eroding geographic boundaries.

Now, founders are building companies from “where they’re at,” whether that’s Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia, or their hometowns in France. Borderless Ventures itself is based in Singapore and Estonia, reflecting this new, decentralized reality.

While networking and physical proximity still matter for building relationships, huge opportunities are everywhere, especially since digital and AI-powered startups can scale from anywhere. And the cost to start is lower than ever: Ethan recalls when hard drives cost half a million dollars; now, world-class web hosting and AI credits are free or nearly free for newcomers. The barrier to entry for big ideas is almost nonexistent.

The AI Bubble: Hype or Real?

With so much venture capital sloshing around — companies with ten employees are valued in the billions — a debate rages about whether AI is in a bubble. Ethan’s take? Short-term overvaluations are normal for disruptive tech, but what’s happening now is like a gold rush: not just for today’s productivity gains, but for the possibility of reaching artificial general intelligence (AGI) and even “artificial superintelligence” (ASI).

The tech giants are pouring in trillions to build massive data centers and train ever-larger models. In Ethan’s view, most of this is a race to own the future: whoever reaches ASI first may hold the keys to solving everything from interstellar travel to aging.

But it’s not all sci-fi. Right now, AI is driving real value in automating repetitive, high-value workflows.

Practical AI: Working Smarter, Not (Just) Harder

One crucial point Ethan makes is that extracting value from AI today is less about the tool, and more about learning to “talk” to it — that is, prompt engineering. Those who learn how to properly instruct AI (by, for example, writing detailed product requirements documents or SOPs) will get dramatically better results.

Ethan sees a coming wave where companies won’t fire en masse, but will simply not replace roles that AI can fill. Already, firms like Fiverr and Shopify are saying they won’t rehire unless a position can’t be done by AI. “Our days are numbered,” as one tech CEO put it, making it more important than ever to upskill and learn to collaborate with automated assistants.

The Unseen Evolution of Web3

While the buzz around Web3 and crypto has cooled, Ethan remains bullish on the foundational ideas. The technology stack of Web3 — blockchains, NFTs, and tokenization — matters not because people care about “crypto,” but because it introduces seamless, direct relationships and removes unnecessary intermediaries.

Look past the jargon, Ethan says, and you’ll find real-world use cases—soulbound NFTs verifying Harvard degrees, limited-access smart contracts for music releases, or authenticated logistics chains for wine and luxury goods. What matters is the efficient proof of origin, authenticity, and ownership. As user interfaces improve and blockchain transactions go “invisible,” Web3 will underpin a huge swath of future commerce and digital experiences.

A unique crossover between Web3 and AI? Agentic AIs—digital agents that perform tasks in workflows—can transfer value between themselves using stablecoins (crypto-pegged to dollars or euros). This enables automated micro-transactions at massive scale, with companies like JP Morgan already processing billions internally using their proprietary coins.

Gen Z exposed sponnsors

Please support our sponsors, who make this fantastic episode possible.

Brevo coupon codeThis episode is brought to you by Brevo (formerly Sendinblue). Brevo gives you the tools to attract, engage, and nurture customer relationships.

Now, any business can build automated customer experiences, email marketing workflows, and landing pages that guide your customers to your main message. We are here to support businesses successfully navigating their digital presence to strengthen their customer relationships.

Go to https://www.brevo.com/marketingcompanion to sign up for Brevo for free and use the code COMPANION to save 50% on your first three months of Brevo’s Starter & Business plan!

A recent Semrush study found that AI search traffic is projected to surpass traditional search by 2028. That makes now the time to prepare your brand for the future of search.

With Semrush AI Search tools, you will lead this transition.

  • Track your AI visibility score: See a single, clear benchmark of your share of voice across AI search platforms.
  • Identify AI mention opportunities: Uncover sources where your competitors are cited—but you’re not—including social media, forums, and more.
  • Benchmark against competitors: Find the exact prompts, mentions, and sources where your competitors appear in AI responses and you don’t.
  • Discover trending prompts: Spot the real questions your audience is asking AI platforms—and build content around them.
  • Shape your brand narrative: Monitor the sentiment and context tied to your AI mentions, and make sure your brand is being represented the way you want.

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Now you can access my marketing consulting mind for free https://businessesgrow.com/2025/10/08/marketing-consulting/ Wed, 08 Oct 2025 12:00:39 +0000 https://businessesgrow.com/?p=90812 How do you scale marketing consulting on a global scale? Build a custom GPT based on everything you know. Is there a business case for giving away everything you know?

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marketing consulting

A few weeks ago I wrote about the personal angst I had about people creating custom GPTs that replicate my intellect. Is this flattering and fun, or a creepy theft of intellectual prowess?

I went through a period of introspection and came to a new realization as I was writing my new book How AI Changes Your Customers (… and all of humanity by the way).

There is no way to escape the influence of AI. No way to dismiss it. No way to deny the permanent impact it will have on our lives, our careers, and our families.

So we have a choice. We can live in fear and denial. Or we can reimagine how AI can make us bigger, bolder, stronger, more creative, and more impactful.

I choose impact. So, I did a thing. I created  The MarkBot — an Expert Trained Model informed by my public work, like books, blog posts, speeches, classes, strategic frameworks, and more.

I am a teacher, a mentor, a guide. If I had an AI that could truly channel my philosophy, education, and experiences, then I could be a teacher to the world … anywhere, any time I am needed. I would be using AI to reimagine myself as a global marketing teacher and business consultant.

I’ve been working on this for a few months, tested it with more than 100 people and now I’m giving it away for free.

Which might not make any sense. So read on.

The Business Strategy

Why would I give away my knowledge base for free?

This isn’t the first time we’ve had this debate. In the early days of content marketing, your boss probably said: “What??? You want me to give away my content and best ideas for free on a blog?”

Yes.

Because if you didn’t, your competitors would. Their content would be discovered, highlighted, and shared — and you’d lose out.

The same is true with AI.

For better or for worse, information flows freely on the web. Once you publish anything, anywhere, it will find its way to open waters. Everything I’ve ever written is already part of the immortal glue holding AI together. Why not channel it in a way that helps people … in my way?

I wasn’t sure how giving away content in the early days of the web would result in business for me, but it did. No matter how much I gave away, people still wanted to connect to me personally for a speech, a workshop, or a business consultation.

Giving away content fueled my success. I’ve never paid for an ad in my life.

Is the MarkBot just another vessel for my content and ideas? Will this work the same way and bring me business? I don’t know. But I do know is that this is a way to help people with honest advice at scale, and that is a dream come true for any teacher.

And it works!

I’ve been working on MarkBot for several months, and I’ve learned that building a great GPT requires much more than just feeding it content. This thing had to be an extension of me. It had to be something I was proud of.

MarkBot is not just an expression of my intellect. It also reflects my values and personal consulting style.

Dozens of people have tested it, and the results have been startling.

One person said it was like talking to me.

Another person received some advice on her business, which she called “profound.”

A third person tested it against other LLMs and found it to be superior for marketing strategy and brainstorming.

Some of the advice it provides seems beyond anything I could do myself. Which is hard to explain, but I’ll take it!

It’s not perfect, and it will always be a work in progress, but I think you might enjoy trying it out. It’s free and private, so your questions and answers are not stored anywhere.

Try MarkBot here.

Beyond marketing consulting

I recently got into a deep discussion on custom GPTs with Dana Malstaff during an episode of The Marketing Companion podcast. She is also developing her own AI to drive her business but in a radically different way.

Her approach is to design AI—chatbots, custom GPTs, and other agents—that set boundaries and parameters. For Dana, it’s critical that these tools reflect her authentic voice and beliefs, and that they’re honest enough to challenge users and not just validate their ideas. This is foundational to building trust and long-term value.

Key highlights from her approach include:

  • A “future self” guidance AI bot
  • A conversion scanner that assesses websites for conversion opportunities
  • An internal bot that streamlines company operations and helps with conflict resolution.
  • Certification programs

Integrating AI into key company processes allows her to spend even more time on the human side of the business that drives revenue and loyalty.

Custom AI isn’t about cutting costs or flooding the web with more generic content. It’s about deeper service, smarter boundaries, and building something that truly sets you apart.

I hope you’ll dive into the MarkBot and learn more about Dana’s revolutionary use of AI in the new episode of The Marketing Companion.

You can listen to this special show here:

Click here to enjoy The Marketing Companion Episode 325

Gen Z exposed sponnsors

Please support our sponsors, who make this fantastic episode possible.

Bravo for Brevo!

Brevo coupon codeThis episode is brought to you by Brevo (formerly Sendinblue). Brevo gives you the tools to attract, engage, and nurture customer relationships.

Now, any business can build automated customer experiences, email marketing workflows, and landing pages that guide your customers to your main message. We are here to support businesses successfully navigating their digital presence to strengthen their customer relationships.

Go to https://www.brevo.com/marketingcompanion to sign up for Brevo for free and use the code COMPANION to save 50% on your first three months of Brevo’s Starter & Business plan!

Unlock your brand’s full digital potential with SEMrush, the all-in-one marketing toolkit trusted by professionals worldwide. From uncovering competitor strategies to tracking keywords, optimizing SEO, and managing social media, SEMrush gives you the insights to outrank and outshine. Imagine having the power to spot opportunities before your rivals, sharpen your content, and drive measurable growth—all in one intuitive platform. Whether you’re scaling a startup or leading a global enterprise, SEMrush equips you with data-driven tools to win online. Don’t just compete — dominate your market with SEMrush. Start your smarter marketing

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Attention to Intention: How AI is Rewriting the Rules of Marketing and Sales https://businessesgrow.com/2025/09/10/rewriting-the-rules-of-marketing/ Wed, 10 Sep 2025 12:00:53 +0000 https://businessesgrow.com/?p=91023 AI is not just adding new capabilities to our professional arsenal, it is rewriting the rules of marketing. In this discussion with tech leader and author Sandy Carter, we look at specific strategies to win the new sales and marketing game in the AI Era.

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Rewriting the Rules of Marketing

As a marketing educator, writer, and entrepreneur, I’m obsessed with understanding the impact of AI on marketing and sales.

On the latest episode of The Marketing Companion, I was fortunate enough to speak with Sandy Carter, who has a broad global view of the new realities.

Sandy, currently leading a high-growth tech unicorn and author of the new book AI First, Human Always (yes, I had the honor of writing the forward!), brings a rare blend of hands-on leadership and futurist perspective.

You can listen to this amazing show just by clicking here:

Click here to enjoy The Marketing Companion Episode 323

And here are a few of the highlights from our talk:

From Counting Clicks to Decoding Intention

For years, marketers have focused on measuring attention, including views, clicks, impressions, and dwell time. We optimized content and spent ad dollars based on where eyeballs went, striving to interrupt or insert ourselves into the customer’s stream of consciousness.

Thanks to AI, that entire playbook is already getting upended. As Sandy pointed out, with advanced predictive tools like ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and Perplexity, customers are now going straight to an agent who can not only surface information but also predict their needs.

Here’s the revelation: AI moves us from being marketers of “attention” to marketers of “intention.” When someone asks an AI assistant for recommendations, they’re stating exactly what they want—think “Give me the best CRM for a startup with $X budget and these features”—and bypassing traditional marketing funnels entirely. The agent already knows how to filter, rank, and recommend based on actual needs, not just exposure or interrupted attention.

The New Gatekeepers: How (and Where) AI Picks Its Winners

Naturally, our conversation turned to the practical question on every marketer’s mind: How do you become one of the five “recommended” brands that AI agents surface? When attention alone is no longer enough to get you into the consideration set, what signals matter?

Sandy’s real-world experiments and research laid it out:

Wikipedia Is Back in Style: AI tools routinely use Wikipedia to validate and select which products or companies to recommend. If you haven’t yet built or maintained a Wikipedia page for your business (or yourself!), you’re likely invisible to these agents.

Social Proof via Reddit: Surprisingly, Reddit threads and subreddits have become an influential social signal for AI. If your brand is being discussed positively in relevant Reddit communities, you’re more likely to make the cut. But beware: unresolved issues or complaints, even from years ago, can hurt you if your brand doesn’t participate actively and transparently.

Rich, Fact-Based Content Wins: AI loves structured, fact-heavy lists and articles — “five reasons to choose X,” “top ten features of Y” — even more than traditional SEO tactics. This means your blog’s FAQ pages, listicles, and data-driven content don’t just help search engines, but are directly picked up by generative models when responding to user prompts.

Authority Still Matters: Recent research (as discussed in a past episode with Andy Crestodina) shows AI privileges brand mentions in non-sales content, press articles, and academic references — pushing the importance of classic PR and media strategy back to the top.

The message is clear: if your brand isn’t showing up in these AI “source” locations, your odds of even being considered are catastrophically reduced.

Brand: The Ultimate “Override” in the Prompt Era

Yet, despite the surge of AI-powered decision-making, our conversation reaffirmed one crucial truth: brand still matters more than ever. AI might present five options when a user states their intention — but which one do they pick?

Often, the tie-breaker remains human: a personal recommendation, a powerful story, a reputation for exceptional service. I shared the story of my own Paris trip, where a friend recommended a gluten-free bakery that didn’t make it onto AI’s list, but immediately became my top pick. That’s the “brand override, ” an emotional shortcut humans still use to filter, select, and even instruct AI agents. Sandy reinforced this with her own experiences and evidence that many enterprise buyers, even after narrowing down their options via AI, still seek out word-of-mouth or social proof before making a commitment.

Even more fascinating: How do you become the default choice mentioned in AI user prompts? (“Book my trip on Delta,” “Research this with Salesforce,” etc.) This is the new holy grail — being so well-branded that you bypass the recommendation filter altogether.

Marketing to Machines (and Machine Influencers)

This doesn’t mean we can coast on reputation. We’re at the dawn of a future where, as Sandy observed, entire teams will be dedicated to “marketing to agents,” not just to human customers. Walmart is already experimenting with this, building strategies to influence the agents (and even humanoid delivery robots!) that are quickly becoming intermediaries for everyday purchasing decisions.

Imagine a robot delivering your pizza, choosing your drink, setting your table … Who is the true “chooser” in this experience: the human or the algorithmic assistant? Will P&G start marketing dishwasher soap to the pizza robot’s parent company, or keep marketing to households? The lines are already blurring.

The Next Generation: AI as Brand Builder (and Best Friend)

There’s another layer: The next generation of buyers — raised on Roblox, TikTok, and personalized AI companions — are already developing affinities through digital worlds. Sandy’s daughter knew to ask for Adidas after encountering it in-game, not through traditional ads or family habits. In many cases, the most influential “friend” or recommender may be an AI personality.

Let’s not underestimate the psychological shift underway. As AI companions move from functional assistants to social confidantes, their product recommendations carry new emotional weight. In fact, social AI companions already outpace ChatGPT in certain engagement metrics. That’s a transformational shift in the trust landscape—one that marketers must start preparing for now.

So, Where Do We Go from Here?

We’re moving from a world of *interrupt and persuade* to one of *predict and facilitate*, with AI agents as both gatekeepers and guides. As marketers, the urgent priorities are:

  • Build and maintain accessible, accurate, and richly detailed references (Wikipedia, Reddit, media hits)
  • Double-down on authority and co-occurrence in natural language (not just backlinks)
  • Lean into transparent, conversational engagement with your audience and communities
  • Embrace the necessity of “marketing to agents,” not just customers
  • Never lose sight of the human: generate enough love, trust, and loyalty for your brand that customers ask for you by name — even when AI presents alternatives.

If there’s one lesson I took from our conversation, it’s that the era of “attention as currency” is giving way to intention, and the path from intention to purchase is no longer a straight line—nor is it exclusively under human control.

Stay sharp, stay engaged, and keep your brand both technologically visible and unmistakably human.

Gen Z exposed sponnsors

Please support our sponsors, who brings you this fantastic episode.

Bravo for Brevo!

Brevo coupon codeThis episode is brought to you by Brevo (formerly Sendinblue). Brevo gives you the tools to attract, engage, and nurture customer relationships.

Now, any business can build automated customer experiences, email marketing workflows, and landing pages that guide your customers to your main message. We are here to support businesses successfully navigating their digital presence to strengthen their customer relationships.

Go to https://www.brevo.com/marketingcompanion to sign up for Brevo for free and use the code COMPANION to save 50% on your first three months of Brevo’s Starter & Business plan!

Unlock your brand’s full digital potential with SEMrush, the all-in-one marketing toolkit trusted by professionals worldwide. From uncovering competitor strategies to tracking keywords, optimizing SEO, and managing social media, SEMrush gives you the insights to outrank and outshine. Imagine having the power to spot opportunities before your rivals, sharpen your content, and drive measurable growth—all in one intuitive platform. Whether you’re scaling a startup or leading a global enterprise, SEMrush equips you with data-driven tools to win online. Don’t just compete — dominate your market with SEMrush. Start your smarter marketing journey today.

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Five signs that new pandemic consumer trends are sticking around https://businessesgrow.com/2022/07/11/pandemic-consumer-trends/ Mon, 11 Jul 2022 12:00:31 +0000 https://businessesgrow.com/?p=57199 These five pandemic consumer trends show how marketing has changed forever

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pandemic consumer trends

We’ve been living through a tragic and scary time, but from an academic perspective, it’s endlessly fascinating to watch how the pandemic consumer trends are sticking around and overturning our ideas about marketing priorities.

I’ve written that we are in an Era of Unintended Consequences that demand our patience and humility about our profession. The pandemic has changed consumers in so many ways that we can’t assume our long-held beliefs about marketing are still true.

Many new pandemic consumer trends are sticking around. I saw evidence of this in some research conducted by GWI and thought a few of these trends are worth noting.

1. Revenge travel

As soon as the pandemic let up, people hit the road again with an unparalleled ferocity. My friend Tim Peter, a consultant to the hospitality industry, characterized this as revenge travel.

This trend has persisted, putting pressure on every aspect of travel. Those with disposable income are making up for lost time by treating themselves to a break. Consumers are going on more vacations and just 36 percent say they’re price-conscious about travel.

A demand for travel + labor shortages = outrage. I’m sure you’re seeing this in the news! It won’t be over soon.

2. Back to basics

Aside from travel, other buying habits are trending toward thriftiness.

From ditching branded goods, to shopping at discount stores where deals are all the rage, consumers are making smart swaps to get more for their money. Or at least, to feel like they are.

Brands should bear in mind that the perception of cost-effectiveness is just as important as price. Factors helping to sway shoppers towards alternative brands include:

  • Trusted recommendations from friends and family
  • Product size (think jumbo-sized goods and multipacks)
  • Freebies and extras

Consumers want to buy from brands offering greater perceived value, even if technically, they aren’t any cheaper.

A notable exception is the luxury goods market, which is resilient and still thriving.

3. Marketing driven by the supply chain?

I hosted a webinar recently featuring consumer research expert Carol DeVito. She works with many of the biggest CPG brands in the world and noted that most marketers are simply trying to keep products on the shelves right now.

“The supply chain is still way out of whack from the pandemic and it will probably be that way for the foreseeable future,” she said. The implication is that the supply chain is driving marketing activities at an unprecedented level.

Consumers will see:

  • Less variety as companies try to keep the most popular items in stock
  • Higher prices due to shipping and warehousing costs
  • Fewer incentives and coupons

Because of real and perceived shortages, consumers are stacking their carts higher to take advantage of low prices when they can.

Many new consumer trends will be reactions to COVID-related supply chain issues, especially if the problem persists for years.

4. Thriftiness helps sustainability

Higher prices are also having an effect on consumer lifestyle habits.

More people are making eco-friendly, money-saving changes, such as:

  • Being more energy-efficient (50%)
  • Walking or cycling more (44%)
  • Reusing more products (38%)

The number of Americans cycling weekly has grown 27 percent in the last year, and a quarter of Gen Z consumers are regularly buying pre-owned items. A big win for the planet.

Look for new business opportunites focusing on the “re-use” theme as well as any products to help people bike, walk, recycle.

Since 52 percent of consumers are exercising more, there has been a surge smart wearable purchases like fitness watches. This suggests more people are happy to invest in their long-term health, probably a reflection of a COVID-era appreciation of health.

5. Staying at home

Another pandemic hold-over trend is staying at home. Although movie theaters are seeing a comeback, most people are making cutbacks to their social lives, spending less on alcohol and nights out.

Desire for cheap date nights may explain why the price of home entertainment and subscription services is of little concern to consumers.

Consumers are spending more time indoors, but they’ve already spent the money on home upgrades and repairs. Home goods and furniture purchases have fallen – a stark reverse to the lockdown refurb trend.

pandemic consumer trends

Pandemic consumer trends are evolving

I consider this run-down of persistent pandemic consumer trends as just the beginning. I hope you’ll help me be on the lookout for these unintended consequences that represent marketing challenges and enormous business opportunities!

Perhaps navigating this changing environment is the biggest challenge in marketing today.

Keynote speaker Mark SchaeferMark Schaefer is the executive director of Schaefer Marketing Solutions. He is the author of some of the world’s bestselling digital marketing books and is an acclaimed keynote speaker, college educator, and business consultant.  The Marketing Companion podcast is among the top business podcasts in the world. Contact Mark to have him speak to your company event or conference soon.

Follow Mark on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube, and Instagram. Discover his $RISE creator community.

Illustration courtesy Unsplash.com

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How to create a million new social media jobs https://businessesgrow.com/2021/11/24/social-media-jobs/ Wed, 24 Nov 2021 13:00:10 +0000 https://businessesgrow.com/?p=55633 A million new social media jobs? Dennis Yu thinks this is probable and possible

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social media jobs

The new Marketing Companion episode launches into a high new orbit this week with the majestic intellect of Dennis Yu.

social media jobs
Dennis Yu

Dennis is a true digital marketing pioneer and a giant in the industry. I’m proud to introduce him as one of my new rotating podcast co-hosts.

In this show recorded in his Las Vegas studio, Dennis and I dream together how we could offer simple skills training to meet a huge market need and create thousands of new well-paying social media jobs. We also dive into how this might open doors to scaling mentorship, a particular passion of mine.

Check out Dennis’s work to create a million new jobs.

On a little more tactical front, Dennis has been actively and effectively using bot-driven blog content. Robo-content is working for him and it’s something we all need to pay attention to. It’s here for the taking and Dennis explains how he uses it in his business.

We also get into sales bros, Jake Paul, lousy LinkedIn pitches, robo-consulting, true personalization, and how “emotional AI” is going to be the biggest game-changer.

This is a rare and special opportunity to mine the brain of a great thought leader and you won’t want to miss this episode!

Click on this link to listen to Episode 233

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Spending Wave Theory: How you can anticipate the next 20 years of trends https://businessesgrow.com/2021/08/04/spending-wave-theory/ Wed, 04 Aug 2021 12:00:24 +0000 https://businessesgrow.com/?p=54642 Understanding spending wave theory can help you determine the next big consumer trends

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spending wave theory

By Keith Reynold Jennings, {grow} Contributing Columnist

My family loves boogie boarding, bodysurfing, and surfing.

Our biggest challenge, given we only get to the ocean every other year or so, is that it takes some practice timing the waves. If we’re too far forward or back in the break, we miss the ride. Or wipe out!

In a 2015 TED Talk, serial entrepreneur Bill Gross revealed that the top reason startups succeed isn’t due to some big idea, elite team, business model, or funding. The single biggest factor in a startup’s success is timing.

A key part of a marketer’s job is mastering timing. The right product at the right price with the right distribution and promotion strategy can still fail if the timing is wrong. If we are too early or late, we’ll miss the ride. Or wipe out!

In this article, I introduce a model that has helped me anticipate trends up to 20 years away. My hope is that it helps you prepare for what’s coming.

  • First, I’ll introduce you to the model, which is called spending wave theory.
  • Then we’ll look at some of today’s trends through the lens of this model.
  • Finally, we’ll look twenty years ahead to what is likely coming.

Introduction to Spending Wave Theory

Back in the early 1990s, economist and academic, Harry S. Dent, published his first national bestseller, The Great Boom Ahead. His thesis, which I first encountered in that book, has become known as spending wave theory (also known as age wave theory).

Spending wave theory essentially states that people do predictable things as they age. Therefore, consumer spending by age is the best predictor of an economy’s macro trends and future performance.

Let’s look at the typical spending cycle in a middle-class economy:

  • 20s: Young adults earn and spend relatively little, so they have little impact on the greater economy.
  • 30s: Earnings and spending increase as people marry/partner, buy first homes and have children.
  • 40s: Spending further increases as people raise children and trade-up to larger homes.
  • 50s: Spending peaks, then begins to decline as children leave home for college.

The economic impact of this lifetime spending cycle is driven by the size of each generation, as measured by births and immigration. Each generational wave has its unique size and force as it builds and breaks across its forty-year work-life cycle.

According to Dent, this engine — (total live births + immigration) x lifetime spending cycle — allows us to anticipate trends decades in advance.

Births and Immigration Drive Economies and Trends

Let’s look at the Baby Boom generation in the U.S. to better understand spending wave theory.

Between 1946 and 1964, 76 million births occurred, making Baby Boomers the largest generation in U.S. history.

Spending Wave Theory

Now, let’s look at Baby Boomer’s life cycle:

  • They entered their 20s between 1966 and 1984.
  • They increased spending and consumption in their 30s between 1976 and 1994.
  • They hit peak spending in their 40s between 1986 and 2004.

In addition to this generation’s massive size, the U.S. experienced a surge in immigration, both legal and illegal. This created an additional boom, as even more consumers entered the U.S. markets.

Now, let’s look at the Dow Jones and NASDAQ performances as this massive population aged:

Spending Wave Theory

Dent’s premise is that the economic boom that began in the 1980s and ran until 2000 was the result of this large demographic of Boomers and immigrants moving through their lifetime spending wave.

Trends such as the proliferation of personal computers, mobile phones, 24-hour news, and video games were the result of the Baby Boom generation “hiring” new technologies to get jobs done in their lives and the lives of their children.

So, what happens when we apply this life-cycle spending to the generations that followed the Baby Boom?

Life-Cycle Spending Drives Today’s Trends

Let’s look at the trends Mark Schaefer recently noted in his post titled, A fast and innovative method of strategy development:

  • There is a severe housing crisis.
  • The pandemic has redefined how and where we work.
  • The pandemic reawakened appreciation of the outdoors and nature.
  • The top issue for many young people is the environment.
  • The top lifestyle aspiration of Millennials and Gen Z is travel and outdoor adventure.

Other trends I’ve encountered recently:

Are these trends a result of the global pandemic? Not likely. These appear to be trends driven by the life cycle season each generation is in.

Could we have anticipated these trends as far back as two decades ago? Probably. How?

  • Millennials, the second-largest generation in U.S. history, have entered their 30s.
  • The 30s are when people’s earnings and spending increase.
  • And the 30s are when people’s family size increases, bigger homes are needed, and parents start to care about school districts, after-school activities, and their kids’ futures.

Given the season they are in their life cycle, Millennials are moving to the suburbs. However, there aren’t enough available houses to accommodate this huge migration of people. Hence a housing shortage.

Gen Z is entering the workforce. They can’t afford a house yet. So, they need apartments.

Millennials want to keep progressing in their jobs, but they don’t want to return to the long commutes and unnecessary business travel required before the pandemic. And given that they currently make up the largest percentage of the workforce, employers are having to reconsider and redefine workplaces and workspaces to remain competitive.

On this topic of remote work, I’m part of a team studying Gen Z attitudes on the workplace. In a recent focus group, we were surprised to learn that the Gen Zers we spoke with want to be in the office. After missing out on key life events, and being separated from friends during the pandemic, they appear to be starving for work environments where they can be around people.

And both Millennials and Gen Z grew up in the era of climate change, so it makes sense that the environment and enjoyment of the outdoors are highly valued.

2041: Looking 20 Years Ahead …

Immigration to the U.S. has significantly decreased due to a combination of the former president’s policies and the pandemic. Birth rates have significantly decreased, as well. These converging trends will have significant future impacts on the U.S. and world.

With Baby Boomers between 57 and 75 years of age, their impact on the economy is waning, with the exception of healthcare consumption, which is growing rapidly.

Starting in 2015 and continuing to 2030, Gen X will peak and begin its decline in spending. However, as a smaller generation than Boomers, the U.S. economy will experience slower growth than we saw in the past.

Millennials will enter their 40s between 2022 and 2036. And their spending will peak between 2032 and 2046.

Dent believes that, despite the Millennial generation being the second-largest in U.S. history, that generation is spread out over more years than Boomers. Therefore, its macro-level impact on economic growth won’t be as profound as we saw with the Baby Boom generation.

On top of this, Gen Z (i.e., those born between 1997 and 2010), are a much smaller generation than the Millennial generation. Therefore, some of the economic trends we are seeing with Gen X will likely parallel what we’ll experience as the Gen Z wave moves through its life cycle.

Dent wrote, “We need to consider hard questions, such as what happens when Japan, most of the countries in Europe, the North American countries, and even China face shrinking workforces and reduced population growth. And what happens when more people retire than are entering the workforce?”

I encourage you to use spending wave theory to ask yourself questions about the next 20 years:

  • Are we facing a future housing surplus as Boomers pass and the much smaller Gen X population can’t match the supply? If so, what year might it hit? How will that affect people’s plans to retire and downsize?
  • Will we see increases salaries, compensation, and benefits as institutions and businesses scramble to recruit from a declining workforce pool? What impact will this have on those living below the poverty line?
  • As Millennials get sucked into the mid-life overwhelm of high-demand jobs, teenagers, and aging parents with complex nest eggs, how will this impact mental health care, financial services, travel, and tourism, etc.?

Spending Wave Theory Where You Live

Throughout this article, I have focused on the United States. As an American, it’s what I best know and understand. But this model can be applied to any country, region, or city.

I’ve simply used the U.S. as an illustration to help you learn how this model works, and how you can apply it to your location and situation.

The key is to look at your region’s current population numbers, immigration and relocation statistics, and live birth totals through the lens of a forty-year lifetime spending cycle.

With this model, you can anticipate what the next twenty years will likely look like for you, your family, career, and community.

Keith Reynold Jennings serves as vice president of community impact for Jackson Healthcare. He writes and speaks at the intersection of values, impact, and identity. Connect with Keith via LinkedIn and his monthly newsletter. 

Illustration courtesy Pexels.com

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A fast and innovative method of strategy development https://businessesgrow.com/2021/07/19/strategy-development/ Mon, 19 Jul 2021 12:00:07 +0000 https://businessesgrow.com/?p=54466 Strategy development used to mean months of research but today it might be being in the moment.

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strategy development

I recently vacationed in the lovely state of Maine and had dinner with an executive responsible for economic strategy development. He told me that some of the state’s traditional industries are in peril, and the worst is the paper industry. Maine once had 17 thriving paper mills but today there are seven.

What do they do with all those old facilities? What do they do with all those trees?

What does Maine’s paper industry have to do with you and your marketing? A lot. Because Maine needs a new way to look at its strategy development, and you probably do, too. Today I’ll explain why.

The seam

Many people are enjoying my new book Cumulative Advantage: How to Build Momentum for your Ideas, Business, and Life Against All Odds.

In my book, I contend that innovation, business opportunity, and momentum begin for all of us when one magical thing happens: We rapidly apply some skill, competency, or resource (an “initial advantage”) to some change happening in the world. I call this a fracture in the status quo, or “the seam.”

When I was growing up in business, strategy development meant a 250-page document and a five-year plan based on projections and historical trend analysis.

Today, the world is moving too fast for any of that. And every historical trendline was abruptly halted in 2020 anyway, right?

Every time there is a disruption in culture, tastes, demographics, or trends, there’s an opportunity for business because these shifts create new unmet and under-served customer needs. So for example,

  • Growth of home food delivery company Hello Fresh doubled because people could not shop or go to restaurants during the pandemic.
  • Sales of home exercise equipment tripled last year as people tried to stay fit in their flats.
  • Social audio app Clubhouse enabled live conversations between lonely, isolated, and (often) unemployed people during the pandemic. In a year, Clubhouse went from less than a million users to 10 million users, most of which were added in 2021.

These companies generated significant momentum by applying their core advantages to a seam — a sudden shift in a trend — and jumping into the opportunity with full force.

Seeing the forest for the trees

Let’s get back to Maine’s problem.

Maine is a northern American state on the Canadian border famous for its rugged beauty and abundant natural resources. More than 80 percent of the state is blanketed with a thick forest of trees. It is a vast, empty state — The largest town of Portland has less than 70,000 citizens.

With all those trees, Maine became home to some of the largest paper mills in the country. But in the digital age, the need for paper declined severely, and about two-thirds of this vital industry shut down.

My new friend told me that the state is trying to figure out what to do with all these trees. Besides paper, what else can you make out of wood?

This is a worthy question. But the answer is probably a generation away. Developing new processes and products from wood and making up for those thousands of lost jobs might take decades … if it happens at all.

But let’s look at the problem another way. What if we tried to create momentum for Maine based on seams?

Initial advantage

First, let’s look at “trees” in a broader sense. What are the cards Maine has in its deck right now?

  • Obviously, lots of trees! But there are also vast deposits of limestone and granite.
  • Without the paper mills, Maine now has millions of acres of unpopulated, forested land.
  • The state has a very small population with a modern infrastructure
  • Maine is famous for its rugged outdoor lifestyle featuring the sea, forests, and a popular National Park.

In my book, we would view this list as the “initial advantage.” Maine has many more advantages of course, but let’s keep it simple.

strategy development
I captured this photo of Harbor Seals when I visited Maine. The state is an outdoor wonderland.

Finding the seams

Now let’s look at the mega-trends in our world. What are some of the “seams” open in America right now?

  • There is a severe housing crisis. Home prices have soared so high that many people may never be able to buy their first home. Even apartment rents have skyrocketed. One city in Idaho is considering erecting a tent city to help meet the needs of the housing shortage!
  • The pandemic has redefined how and where we work. Many companies invested in a technology infrastructure that enables a remote work life. For the first time in history, it’s easy for millions of people to have a “geographically neutral” career.
  • The pandemic reawakened appreciation of the outdoors and nature.
  • The top issue for many young people is the environment. This is fueling a trend toward eco-friendly “tiny houses.”
  • The top lifestyle aspiration of Millenials and Gen Z is travel and outdoor adventure.

Momentum for Maine

Again, this is a rudimentary example because I didn’t spend a lot of time researching Maine and its assets, but let’s combine the list of advantages with these seams to discover paths for strategy development:

  1. Maine has land and plentiful building materials — lumber, cement, and rock. Could it become a mecca for more affordable housing? Would people happily trade a long, cold winter for the chance to own a home?
  2. Could Maine turn some of the beautiful but unused forest assets into attractive remote working hubs? What if you designed communities specifically for remote workers that emphasized 24-hour amenities like child care, food service, and technical support?
  3. Maine is a popular vacation destination. Could it attract new “settlers” and jobs by providing free “Maine Pass” access to recreational opportunities? Lifetime free parking, discounts, entry fees.
  4. Could Maine appeal to environmental sensitivities by building state-of-the-art tiny house eco-communities in the forest lands?
  5. America was built through land grants. Our big empty states offered plots of free land to attract settlers. Basically, Maine needs settlers who can create jobs. Why not give land grants or inexpensive housing to qualified entrepreneurs? Build an entrepreneurial suburb. “Maker” communities.

Strategy development: New versus now

Maine is more likely to replace those paper industry jobs by focusing on what is happening NOW versus inventing something NEW to use up the wood surplus. I almost said, this is the “Maine idea,” but of course I would never stoop to something like that. : )

Here’s another idea for you Maine. You’re small. Most states could not take advantage of new seams because they’re too big and bureaucratic. Being small can become an advantage if you turn that fact into “nimble.”

And for you, my valued blog reader, look closely at everything changing around you. How can you apply your skills and resources to solve the problems of the moment? This is the beginning of your momentum.

New seams are opening every day.

Keynote speaker Mark SchaeferMark Schaefer is the executive director of Schaefer Marketing Solutions. He is the author of several best-selling digital marketing books and is an acclaimed keynote speaker, college educator, and business consultant.  The Marketing Companion podcast is among the top business podcasts in the world. Contact Mark to have him speak to your company event or conference soon.

Follow Mark on Twitter, LinkedIn, and Instagram. 

I took the photos in this post.

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How to save your job from remote work offshoring risks https://businessesgrow.com/2020/08/26/remote-work/ Wed, 26 Aug 2020 12:00:36 +0000 https://businessesgrow.com/?p=51553 Remote work can be great but are you vulnerable to offshoring? Here are the best ways to keep your job secure.

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remote work

By Kiki Schirr, {grow} Contributing Columnist

Many people are rejoicing that the pandemic has allowed them to enjoy the benefits of remote work.

There’s no doubt that some people’s quality of life improves when they work remotely. The average American spends nearly an hour commuting, and commutes in major cities are even longer. Flexibility, free time and family time takes a hit. Some people are more productive in a quiet home environment.

But not all workers are excited about remote work from home.

Any job that can be done 100 percent remotely is a job that can probably be done for less money by someone in Mumbai or Manila.

So let’s take a look at this risk today.

Should workers fear remote work offshoring?

My dad, a financial analyst turned futures trader turned marketing professor, brought up remote work offshoring after dinner. We’d discussed globalization earlier this week and with the hubris of a Millennial, I kept pointing out the greed behind offshoring. But he challenged my narrative when he recalled:

“I remember talking with the people who ran those small-to-medium-sized businesses in the Midwest. They didn’t want to send their manufacturing jobs overseas but they could no longer compete against their rivals once the bigger companies had offshored. And their decision became: close a factory in Detroit and keep the white collar jobs local or close the entire company. They hated it.”

This situation is repeating itself. As our pandemic has pushed more companies into going remote, executives have finally learned to manage remote teams and companies are backing out of expensive office leases. While this is a great lifestyle change for most white-collar workers, it’s also creating an opening for remote work offshoring.

There are going to be sympathetic bosses doing this. There will be good managers firing workers in Tucson and Des Moines not because of performance but because the shift to digital work has made the workforce pool include anyone with a stable Internet connection.

And while we’ve all been dreading automation, the future of work, and the advent of A.I. disrupting our job-based economy, the move to remote work will prove a more immediate threat to our way of life.

How to prevent your remote work from being offshored

But enough doom and gloom—we’ve all had our fill of that these days! Let’s be more positive. Here’s what can be done to save your job from remote work offshoring.

No company can offshore a job that only you can do. Here are four good methods of becoming your employer’s only logical choice:

  1. Develop unique skills
  2. Become the face of your company
  3. Practice a trade
  4. Become KNOWN

Now, let’s break down each of these points into more actionable steps.

1. Develop unique skills

To stand out with your skills, you don’t have to be the very best at something, but you could be the one person who can do several very different skills. In Hollywood, someone who could sing, dance, and act was known as a “triple threat” and adds more potential value to an ensemble.

Likewise in baseball, it’s not uncommon for a great hitter to be sent down to the minors for a lesser prospect who has the flexibility to play many positions. On paper, it might look like the better player has been left behind for somebody who actually creates more value for the team.

There’s an amazing book about overlapping skills that everyone in our current economy should read. Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World is David Epstein’s analysis of why a breadth of skills often outperforms the so-called 10,000 hour experts out there. It’s fascinating and a good start for exploring your potential to be the best comedian-technologist-salesperson out there.

2. Become the face of your company

When people talk about the importance of networking I often nod along until they get to methodology. Yes, knowing the right people and maintaining relationships over time is vital. But business cards and LinkedIn messages and CRMs are tools, not strategies. And employing them time and again makes you seem all tool and no follow-through.

Instead of connecting with lots of people, focus on intensely helping a few people. Pick your company’s less tech-savvy clients and walk them through your product set up. Give them your email and direct work phone number for when they run across issues. If you can’t fix their problem yourself, make it your problem to find the person who can.

If you become the person that clients trust most, the person they ask for by name when the SIV hits the FRB and no one else knows what to do, you’ll always have a job.

3. Learn a trade

“Marry a plumber.” My grandma used to tell me. “They’ll always have work.”

There’s more wisdom in that than you might think. A skilled job done with your hands in a designated domestic location cannot, by definition, be offshored … until drones are equipped with opposable thumbs, anyway.

If you learn a trade on top of your current skillset you’ll always have business to fall back on. And many states offer assistance in learning much-needed trade skills. Google your state name and “skills training” or “apprenticeships.” The U.S. Department of Labor budgeted $100 million to support on-job paid training in the form of apprenticeships this year. Take advantage of the skills gaps your state is experiencing.

4. Become KNOWN

The final way to secure your job might not be the easiest path, but Mark Schaefer did write an extensive roadmap to doing it. Become KNOWN.

Mark Schaefer said in his famous book: “Being known is not the same as being famous. It’s not about having millions of fans and red carpet appearances. Becoming known is about approaching your digital life with an intent that establishes the authority, reputation, and audience to achieve your goals.”

While effective, his process of establishing yourself as an expert does take time. If you’re worried about your job now, combine this strategy with the problem-solving of the second strategy and make content to help your clients solve their largest problems.

Anytime your product is updated, make a quick YouTube video with your face and a clear explanation of the changes and anything confusing that might occur. Make a step-by-step guide to changing your password or creating a secure password.

Anticipate your clients’s needs and address them as yourself, the helpful expert in the product, and that will kick start your fanbase.

(Just a quick side-note: I also highly recommend the workbook version of KNOWN, which is an easier quick reference than the many Post-it notes I was marking my book with until I realized there was a simpler way! But keep in mind that it accompanies but does not replace the full-text book.)

Start NOW

Now is the time to secure your remote work position by putting these techniques into practice. Don’t wait–many of these strategies require time to fully pay off. Also be sure to review your past accomplishments and publications to see if any can be repurposed to fit these categories.

Good luck, and share any tips you might have with all of us in the comments below!

KikiSchirrKiki Schirr is a freelance marketer who enjoys finding the bright sides of new trends. She has worked on multiple entrepreneurial projects, including founding a small video chat company that sunsetted before the advent of the pandemic. You can email Kiki Schirr at her full name without spaces at Gmail but she does respond faster on Twitter.

 

 

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Why I’m not dismayed by the post-crisis economic projections https://businessesgrow.com/2020/05/04/post-crisis-economic-projections/ Mon, 04 May 2020 12:00:31 +0000 https://businessesgrow.com/?p=50201 Post-crisis economic projections are dire. I'm not impressed.

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post-crisis economic projections

Business leaders and economists are forecasting dire post-crisis economic projections — perhaps the worst downturn of our lifetime. Certainly, the rapid bounce-back of the “V curve” seems improbable at this point.

But I’m not as bearish as many others for a simple reason. Economists can’t account for ingenuity.

The government isn’t going to bring us through this crisis. Politicians (at least in the U.S.) are more concerned about holding their seats and creating slick TV sound bites than leading us.

But businesses will step up to figure this out. It’s already happening.

The day New York Governor Andrew Cuomo made face masks mandatory, I started seeing Facebook ads for Pittsburgh Steelers face masks. My favorite team. On my face. Boom.

Go America.

post-crisis economic projections

Innovation will win

“Every tech entrepreneur that I know is spending time on the pandemic response,” CEO of global start-up accelerator The Founder Institute Adeo Ressi told CNBC. “Many innovations will result from this global focus.”

Robert Herjavec of “Shark Tank” fame said the entrepreneurial spirit of America makes him optimistic about the U.S. economy despite the post-crisis economic projections.

“The human condition is about hope,” Herjavec said in a TV interview. “Every time someone comes on ‘Shark Tank,’ they’re full of hope and they’re full of optimism. This is a challenging time but entrepreneurs will figure it out.”

Mark cuban

Another one of my Shark Tank favorites, billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban, is adamant that capitalism and Americans’ entrepreneurial spirit will fuel an economic rebound that will birth several “world-changing companies.”

In an interview, he said, “The one thing about the United States of America that’s different than every other country on the planet is that we’re a country of entrepreneurs. We look to start businesses. When we talk about the American Dream, when we talk about rags-to-riches stories, it starts with an entrepreneur coming up with an idea and executing on that idea.”

Businesses rise up

Here are a few examples of businesses rising up to meet the needs of the coronavirus crisis in inspiring ways!

  • More than 100 distilleries have converted their lines to manufacture hand sanitizer. A couple of big companies have joined in, including Anheuser-Busch and Tito’s Handmade Vodka.
  • Phone-charging station company ChargedUp has shifted its charging stations to hand sanitizer stations, in an initiative called CleanedUp.
  • Meeting and events industry professionals have been hit particularly hard during this crisis, but they are using their skills at rapidly deploying temporary structures to build a call center to connect COVID-19 response teams with vetted suppliers and resources.
  • NASCAR turned the 3D printing facilities in its R&D lab into a face shield production line. Bauer, the hockey equipment company, switched from making gear for the ice to creating specialized medical gear to be worn in conjunction with regular medical masks.
  • In Western Pennsylvania, a local rancher has brought back home milk delivery and has added beef, butter, bacon, and other local farm products to his services. He described the new demand as “a tidal wave.”
  • A vending machine operator pulled all its machines out of entertainment venues and placed them in apartment buildings with healthy food options.

Genevieve Sutherns

  • 17-year-old Genevieve Sutherns started a new business in the middle of the crisis. Each week, she picks about 10 local stores, usually food vendors, and assembles an assortment of their items in a bag that then gets delivered to customers. This is delighting customers and keeping local businesses afloat.
  • Start-up Inokyo, which builds and installs autonomous checking for retail stores, has used its technical knowledge to build a product, Act, specifically to help companies deploy contact-tracing technology to their workplaces and warehouses.
  • Stressed parents trying to entertain kids all day are benefiting from Banjo Robinson, a London-based ed-tech company that pivoted to occupy children through an interactive penpal experience. The company experienced a five-fold increase in daily sales since schools closed.
  • Microgreen kit producer Hamama is helping people grow green produce at home and even in apartments.
  • In one week, Punchpass launched a Zoom integration to let their clients – small fitness and yoga studios – a transition from teaching in-person classes to virtual ones.
  • Wendy Richards expanded her business to manufacture cloth diapers for parents who can’t get disposable diapers at the store. She is now working round-the-clock to meet demand. In the second week of March, her daily revenue more than tripled to $23,000 a day.
  • Chicago’s iPromo, a promotional products (aka swag) business, hit a brick wall in early March as trade shows came to a halt. Within five days, the company leveraged its deep sourcing relationships in China to find suppliers of hand sanitizer, face masks, thermometers, and other health-related goods and roll out an online sales platform called iHealth. “We’ve done a 180-degree turn as a company,” the owner said. “iHealth is literally what’s keeping us alive.”
  • Start-up Decent created an insurance program specifically for self-employed workers. Their business has tripled since early March. Previously uninsured people rushed to get coverage in case they fell ill during the coronavirus outbreak.
  • Bill Gates may soon ask fellow billionaires to pool donations for a coronavirus relief fund, Vox reports. Gates may also set up a “marketplace” that connects wealthy donors to projects seeking funding.

Reading through these little stories helps you see the incredible potential of the entrepreneurial spirit. And that’s why I’m not dismayed by the post-crisis economic projections.

Coming out of the Great Depression, 9/11, the World Financial Crisis, the projections were uniformly dire — and wrong.

The most influential and important events are the ones that emerge spontaneously and with little warning — like the coronavirus itself. We will have millions of those events ahead of us. The innovators, creators, and makers will lead us to the other side.

America, we were built for this.

Note: I’ve prepared an inspirational, 30-minute virtual presentation designed for weekly team meetings. Filled with inspirational case studies and real-world solutions, it’s called “Fighting to The Other Side”. To learn more, or to bring this to your next meeting, send me a message here.

Keynote speaker Mark SchaeferMark Schaefer is the chief blogger for this site, executive director of Schaefer Marketing Solutions, and the author of several best-selling digital marketing books. He is an acclaimed keynote speaker, college educator, and business consultant.  The Marketing Companion podcast is among the top business podcasts in the world. Contact Mark to have him speak to your company event or conference soon.

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Marketing without measurement in a world of malignant complexity https://businessesgrow.com/2019/08/05/malignant-complexity/ Mon, 05 Aug 2019 12:00:14 +0000 https://businessesgrow.com/?p=47703 In a world of malignant complexity, we may have to grow comfortable with marketing without forecasting or reliable measurement.

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malignant complexity

This is not a blog about economics. I am far more interesting than that! However, I would like to refer to economics briefly to make an important point about malignant complexity and the future of marketing measurement.

The economists are confused!

While reporting on the robust economy in America, The New York Times noted that the current combination of low unemployment and low inflation seems impossible.

Economists believed you could never have a low unemployment rate (3.7 percent) without also seeing the rate of job creation slowing (where are new workers going to come from?) and having an increase in inflation.

And yet the economic “impossibility” has happened. The U.S. jobless rate has receded to its lowest level in 50 years, job creation is steady, and inflation is about 1.5 percent, the same as last year.

Stick with me here …

Here’s where it gets interesting (really). Two years ago, the Federal Reserve published a report predicting that the unemployment rate in this year would be around 5 percent, and that this would coincide with a 2 percent inflation rate.

So in this short period of time, the greatest economists on the planet have been embarrassed. All those algorithms. All those advanced degrees. The economists can’t explain what is happening in the U.S. economy right now.

I am not making a political statement. I’m making this point to demonstrate that the world has become so complex that even in a math-driven field like economics, nobody really knows what the hell is going on in the world.

Malignant Complexity

A few years ago, I predicted that the biggest emerging business trend would be malignant complexity, meaning that the insane complications and unintended consequences of rapid technological change makes it difficult to understand our world, let alone predict what’s next.

Economics is a mature field, largely based on irrefutable math. And yet, economists cannot adequately explain what’s going on in America right now. The rulebook for forecasting and planning is being re-written. Or, perhaps there is no rulebook at all!

I think we have also hit that point of malignant complexity in marketing where many predictions are wild guesses and measurement becomes intangible.

I recently wrote, with humility, that I do not see a clear path forward for the future of social media. I have a solid track record of discerning how trends come together but there are so many mega-trends in motion right now that I don’t understand the interconnections and how it will play out Nobody does.

What happens when we don’t understand

When I started in business, the company I worked for had us create five-year plans. That seems silly today, but in the 1980s we could forecast a reasonable long-term plan because the rate of technological change was relatively slow.

An implication of malignant complexity is that the time horizon for accurate forecasts is getting shorter and shorter. Can we even see what will happen in one year? Six months? Will the forecast horizon soon become a month … or one week?

This is unfamiliar territory for businesses built on plans.

What would happen if we created an annual forecast for our boss that was blank because that is the most honest prediction we could make? That would not be popular. But I think we’re kidding ourselves if we think our mortal minds can stay ahead of malignant complexity!

Marketing without measures?

This reinforces one of the themes I wrote about in my book Marketing Rebellion. We are working in a marketing world increasingly difficult to predict or measure. Even today, our marketing dashboards are focused on likes and tweets that probably don’t matter any more.

Without question, the most successful and relevant marketers in the future will have to relax expectations on predictable outcomes and reliable measures.

I never thought I would write a statement like that because it seems so flaky … but it’s the truth. I’m not making excuses, I’m simply acknowledging that we can either keep up with the pace of this world or we can stick to our marketing dashboards. We probably can’t do both.

In an age of malignant complexity and unrelenting change, some aspects of marketing measurement will become a leap of faith. In some cases, the speed of business will outstrip our ability to forecast and measure. Perhaps non-measured, speed-driven marketing management will become the norm, a best practice.

That is going to take some courage, isn’t it?

How are you adjusting to this weird new mindset?

Keynote speaker Mark SchaeferMark Schaefer is the chief blogger for this site, executive director of Schaefer Marketing Solutions, and the author of several best-selling digital marketing books. He is an acclaimed keynote speaker, college educator, and business consultant.  The Marketing Companion podcast is among the top business podcasts in the world.  Contact Mark to have him speak to your company event or conference soon.

The post Marketing without measurement in a world of malignant complexity appeared first on Schaefer Marketing Solutions: We Help Businesses {grow}.

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